Year: 1998
Type: article
Abstract: The results from a numerical- probabilistic experiment aimed at evaluating avalanche-release probabilities are presented in order to show the problems and the possibilities of such an approach. A snow slab on a mountain slope is modeled as a thin elastic non-moment shell resting on a three-dimensional hard underlying surface. The thickness of snow is considered as an inhomogeneous Gaussian spatial random field with a predetermined covariance that was obtained previously by field measurements. The stress distribution σ(x, y) is calculated by solving the equations of equilibrium using a finite-difference method with a mesh of lines of curvature on a mountain slope. As a criterion of avalanche release, exceeding some threshold value of stress σthres; by the calculated value σ(x, y) is applied. The field P(σ(x, y) > σthres; x, y) derived, using the Monte-Carlo method, is regarded as a measure of the spatial distribution of avalanche-release probability. This simulation scheme at present has no claim to forecast avalanche release but may be used to pinpoint the importance of snow distribution on a slope.
Source: Annals of Glaciology
Authors: P. A. Chernouss, Yu.V. Fedorenko
Institutions: Russian Academy of Sciences, Kola Science Centre
Language: English
Subfield: Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W201939028