Work

A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics

Year: 2015

Type: article

Abstract: Infectious diseases spreading in a human population occasionally exhibit sudden transitions in their qualitative dynamics. Previous work has successfully predicted such transitions in New York City's historical measles incidence using the seasonally forced susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model. This work relied on a dataset spanning 45 years (1928-1973), which we have extended to 93 years (1891-1984). We identify additional dynamical transitions in the longer dataset and successfully explain them by analysing attractors and transients of the same mechanistic epidemiological model.

Source: Journal of The Royal Society Interface

DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2015.0024

Authors: Karsten Hempel, David J. D. Earn

Institution: McMaster University

Language: English

Topic: Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Subfield: Applied Mathematics

Field: Mathematics

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W2084520173

FWCI: 1.606

Cites: 50

Cited by: 21

Related to: 10