Work

Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and its applications

Year: 2003

Type: article

Abstract: . Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) is proposed to study the predictability of numerical weather and climate prediction. A simple coupled ocean-atmosphere model for ENSO is adopted as an example to show its applicability. In the case of climatological mean state being the basic state, it is shown that CNOP tends to evolve into El Niño or La Niña event more probably than linear singular vector (LSV) on the condition that CNOP and LSV are of the same magnitude of norm. CNOP is also employed to study the prediction error of El Niño and La Niña events. Comparisons between CNOP and LSV demonstrate that CNOP is more applicable in studying the predictability of the models governing the nonlinear motions of oceans and atmospheres.

Source: Nonlinear processes in geophysics

DOI: 10.5194/npg-10-493-2003

Authors: M. Mu, W. S. Duan, B. Wang

Institutions: Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, University of Hawaii System

Language: English

Topic: Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,412

Funder: Chinese Academy of Sciences