Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
Year: 2013
Type: article
Abstract: Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.
Institutions: Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Columbia University, University of Chicago, University of East Anglia, Tyndall Centre, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, University of Florida, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Wageningen University & Research, BOKU University
Language: English
Domain: Life Sciences
SDGs: Climate action, Zero hunger
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W2118921617