Year: 2011
Type: preprint
Abstract: This paper develops a set of leading indicators of industrial production growth and consumer price inflation for the period 2001-2010. The choice of indicators is based on pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise implemented by Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. We find that asset prices that reflect expectational factors or interest rates that capture the costs of borrowing for the Turkish economy tend to have the greatest predictive power for future real activity and inflation. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining real activity and inflation in a period of disinflation and normalization for the Turkish economy.
Authors: Sumru Altuğ, Erhan Uluceviz
Language: English
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2133244201