Year: 2013
Type: article
Abstract: We describe the main differences in simulations of stratospheric climate and variability by models within the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that have a model top above the stratopause and relatively fine stratospheric vertical resolution (high‐top), and those that have a model top below the stratopause (low‐top). Although the simulation of mean stratospheric climate by the two model ensembles is similar, the low‐top model ensemble has very weak stratospheric variability on daily and interannual time scales. The frequency of major sudden stratospheric warming events is strongly underestimated by the low‐top models with less than half the frequency of events observed in the reanalysis data and high‐top models. The lack of stratospheric variability in the low‐top models affects their stratosphere‐troposphere coupling, resulting in short‐lived anomalies in the Northern Annular Mode, which do not produce long‐lasting tropospheric impacts, as seen in observations. The lack of stratospheric variability, however, does not appear to have any impact on the ability of the low‐top models to reproduce past stratospheric temperature trends. We find little improvement in the simulation of decadal variability for the high‐top models compared to the low‐top, which is likely related to the fact that neither ensemble produces a realistic dynamical response to volcanic eruptions.
DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50125
Authors: Andrew J. Charlton‐Perez, Mark P. Baldwin, Thomas Birner, Robert X. Black, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Nicholas A. Davis, Edwin P. Gerber, Nathan Gillett, Steven Hardiman, Junsu Kim, Kirstin Krüger, Yun‐Young Lee, Elisa Manzini, Brent A. McDaniel, Lorenzo Polvani, Thomas Reichler, Tiffany A. Shaw, Michael Sigmond, Seok‐Woo Son, Matthew Toohey, Laura Wilcox, Shigeo Yoden, Bo Christiansen, François Lott, Drew Shindell, Seiji Yukimoto, Shingo Watanabe
Institutions: University of Reading, University of Exeter, Colorado State University, Georgia Institute of Technology, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, New York University, University of Victoria, Met Office, University of Utah, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Kennesaw State University, Columbia University, University of Toronto, Seoul National University, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Kyoto University, Danish Meteorological Institute, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: bronze
Funders: National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Energy, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government, European Commission, Met Office, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Natural Environment Research Council, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Office of Polar Programs, Biological and Environmental Research
Awards: Extreme Weather Variations in the Stratosphere -Troposphere Coupled, G1947995952, G2078274656, Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth system for better climate prediction and projection, Collaborative Research: The Arctic Springtime Transition: Dynamics, Impacts, and Future Changes, Hadley Centre Climate Prediction Programme
OpenAlex ID: W2147752502