Work

Tracking Productivity in Real Time

Year: 2006

Type: preprint

Abstract: Because volatile short-term movements in productivity growth obscure the underlying trend, shifts in this trend may go unrecognized for years - a lag that can lead to policy mistakes and hence economic instability. This study develops a model for tracking productivity that brings in additional variables to help reveal the trend. The model's success is evident in its ability to detect changes in trend productivity within a year or two of their occurrence. Currently, the model indicates that the underlying trend remains strong despite recent weak productivity data.

Source: SSRN Electronic Journal

Authors: James R. Kahn, Robert W. Rich

Institutions: National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Language: English

Topic: Economic Growth and Productivity

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Decent work and economic growth

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W2156201467

Cites: 8

Cited by: 10

Related to: 10