Year: 2016
Type: article
Abstract: The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fueled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with fewer in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar–lower-latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting communites will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modeling, prediction, verification, user engagement, and educational activities.
Authors: Thomas Jung, Neil D. Gordon, Peter Bauer, David H. Bromwich, Matthieu Chevallier, Jonathan J. Day, Jackie Dawson, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Christopher Fairall, Helge F. Goessling, Marika Holland, Jun Inoue, Trond Iversen, Stefanie Klebe, Peter Lemke, Martin Losch, Alexander Makshtas, Brian Mills, Pertti Nurmi, Donald Perovich, Philip Reid, Ian A. Renfrew, Gregory Smith, Gunilla Svensson, Mikhail Tolstykh, Qinghua Yang
Institutions: Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, University of Bremen, Te Pūnaha Matatini, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, The Ohio State University, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, University of Reading, University of Ottawa, Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Institute of Polar Research, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Bureau of Meteorology, University of East Anglia, Stockholm University, Hydrometeorological Research Centre of Russian Federation, Institute of Numerical Mathematics, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W2232638361