How model outputs can be used to improve decision-making: Using bio-economic model outputs in deliberative multi-criteria evaluation to prioritize invasive pest species
Year: 2009
Type: conference-paper
Abstract: : The sheer number and complexity of biophysical and socio-economic models and their outputs can quickly overwhelm stakeholders who are trying to make sense of a natural resource-related issue. Add uncertainty to this bulk of multi-faceted information from risk analyses and the justification for selecting a course of action becomes an even more daunting endeavour. Decision and policy makers have to combine model outputs with a variety of other information sources in order to make difficult trade-offs between often conflicting investment options. A transparent and flexible decision facilitation process is required to help assimilate complex model outputs and other information within the context of policy considerations and guide decision-makers toward agreed conclusions on the issue at hand. To aid stakeholders in the prioritization of biosecurity risk investment options, we provide information on invasive pest risk including a bio-economic pest impact model, socio-economic activity and ecological impacts. The specialized nature of the information, such as pest impact models, inevitably reach beyond the expertise of a participant group comprised of the public or a policy-making group, thus requiring decision support in the form of interpreting key findings and the corresponding uncertainty. The bio-economic model makes predictions concerning the costs incurred by the industry if the pest becomes part of the production scheme. The model has an associated sensitivity analysis that presents the full range of uncertainty
Authors: Michael Hurley, Kim Lowell, David Cook, Shuang Liu, Abu-Baker M. Siddique, Art Diggle
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2233733618