Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days in winter 2010 and 2011
Year: 2013
Type: article
Abstract: In this paper we try to extract stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, similarity coefficient, and some other methods based on the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis daily data. The comparisons of the coefficient of variance of climatological background field and truth data in winter between 2010 and 2011 are made. The method of extracting stable components and climatological background field can be helpful to increase forecasting skill. The forecasting skill improvement of air temperature is better than geopotential height at 500 hPa. Moreover, this method improves the predictability better in the Pacific Ocean. In China, the forecast in winter in Northeast China is more uncertain than in the other parts.
Source: Chinese Physics B
Authors: Kuo Wang, Guo-Lin Feng, Yu-Xing Zeng, Xu-Jia Wang
Institutions: Lanzhou University, China Meteorological Administration
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W2266914136