Year: 2016
Type: article
Abstract: . Studies using climate models and observed trends indicate that extreme weather has changed and may continue to change in the future. The potential impact of extreme events such as heat waves or droughts does not only depend on their number of occurrence but also on "how the extremes occur", i.e. the interplay and succession of the events. These quantities are quite unexplored, for past changes as well as for future changes and call for sophisticated methods of analysis. To address this issue, we use Markov chains for the analysis of the dynamics and succession of multivariate or compound extreme events. We apply the method to observational data (1951–2010) and an ensemble of regional climate simulations for Central Europe (1971–2000, 2021–2050) for two type of compound extremes, heavy precipitation and cold in winter and hot and dry days in summer. We identify three regions in Europe, which are probably susceptible to a future change in the succession or dynamics of heavy precipitation and cold in winter, which are a region south western France, northern Germany and in Russia around Moscow. The change in the succession of hot and dry days in summer will probably affect regions in Spain and Bulgaria. The susceptibility to a dynamic change of hot and dry extremes in the Russian region will probably decrease.
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,047
OpenAlex ID: W2280995072