Year: 2016
Type: article
Abstract: Scenarios from integrated assessment models can provide insights into how carbon budgets relate to other policy-relevant indicators by including information on how fast and by how much emissions can be reduced. Such indicators include the peak year of global emissions, the decarbonisation rate and the deployment of low-carbon technology. Here, we show typical values for these indicators for different carbon budgets, using the recently compiled IPCC scenario database, and discuss how these vary as a function of non-CO 2 forcing, energy use and policy delay. For carbon budgets of 2000 GtCO 2 and less over the 2010–2100 period, supply of low carbon technologies needs to be scaled up massively from today's levels, unless energy use is relatively low. For the subgroup of scenarios with a budget below 1000 GtCO 2 (consistent with >66% chance of limiting global warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels), the 2050 contribution of low-carbon technologies is generally around 50%–75%, compared to less than 20% today (range refers to the 10–90th interval of available data).
Source: Environmental Research Letters
Institutions: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Utrecht University, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ETH Zurich, Climate Analytics, Wageningen University & Research, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Politecnico di Milano
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,045
OpenAlex ID: W2471652001