Scenario Content, Outcome and Process - developing and testing methodologies for goal-based socio-technical scenarios
Year: 2011
Type: report
Abstract: This report presents methodological developments and findings from the ongoing research project SitCit. SitCit is a cross-disciplinary research project in which the challenge of sustainable urban development is taken on through a futures studies approach. Rather than starting in the problematic present, SitCit takes its starting point in the desired future. Through developing scenarios of more sustainable futures and connecting these to the present, the project aims at identifying and innovating potentials for a less environmentally burdening urban life. Energy use and CO2 are the main focus, but through a complementary qualitative sustainability assessment other aspects of sustainability are also included. The scenario methodology is comprised of three separate but interconnected parts. In the Scenario Content the question what could change is at the centre, and the potential changes are sought in the physical, institutional, and socio-cultural structures of buildings, transport and citizens’ everyday life. Fundamental to the Scenario Content is an iterative identification of objects and actors of change. The Scenario Outcome focuses on the question of how much energy use could be decreased through these changes. This is estimated through modelling the scenario contents in terms of energy usage systems. In the Scenario Process the question of how the changes could be achieved is explored through elaborating the identified actors into a dimension of governance in the scenarios. In SitCit, the methodology is developed through three scenario studies focusing on green mobility in Bromma, ICT solutions in Södermalm and energy efficiency through refurbishment in Rinkeby-Kista. These three Stockholm City Districts all have their specific urban morphological and demographical characteristics and are chosen for contrast. This report presents the study focusing on green mobility. Preliminary findings from this study indicate that through including social structures and the question of agency in scenarios, these become socio-technically more consistent and comprehensive. Furthermore, this way of developing scenarios contributes to identifying or innovating potential of a social character. The scenario study presents a number of ideas on green private transport.
Authors: Josefin Wangel, Stina Gustafsson
Institution: KTH Royal Institute of Technology
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W25738239