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Which Is More Probable—"25% + 25%" or "40% + 10%"?: Effect of the Distribution of Focal Outcomes on Gut-level Perception of Certainty

Year: 2006

Type: article

Abstract: Previous studies reveal that the distribution of alternative outcomes plays an important role in the probability judgment of focal outcomes.Based on this finding, the present study addresses the following question: does the distribution of focal outcomes affect probability judgment?A total of 313 participants (66 in Experiment 1 and 247 in Experiment 2) estimate fictitious results of slot machines with many winning letters.Results of the two experiments indicate that with the exception of a few cases, people estimate a higher probability for focal outcomes that are distributed more uniformly.

Source: eScholarship (California Digital Library)

Authors: Kuninori Nakamura, Kimihiko Yamagishi

Institution: Tokyo Institute of Technology

Language: English

Topic: Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics

Subfield: General Decision Sciences

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: green

Funder: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

Award: Modeling effects of subjective probability expressions on decision making

OpenAlex ID: W2625748386

FWCI:

Cites: 16

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Related to: 10