The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification
Year: 2019
Type: article
Abstract: Polar amplification – the phenomenon where external radiative forcing produces a larger change in surface temperature at high latitudes than the global average – is a key aspect of anthropogenic climate change, but its causes and consequences are not fully understood. The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; Eyring et al., 2016) seeks to improve our understanding of this phenomenon through a coordinated set of numerical model experiments documented here. In particular, PAMIP will address the following primary questions: (1) what are the relative roles of local sea ice and remote sea surface temperature changes in driving polar amplification? (2) How does the global climate system respond to changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice? These issues will be addressed with multi-model simulations that are forced with different combinations of sea ice and/or sea surface temperatures representing present-day, pre-industrial and future conditions. The use of three time periods allows the signals of interest to be diagnosed in multiple ways. Lower-priority tier experiments are proposed to investigate additional aspects and provide further understanding of the physical processes. These experiments will address the following specific questions: what role does ocean–atmosphere coupling play in the response to sea ice? How and why does the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice depend on the pattern of sea ice forcing? How and why does the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice depend on the model background state? What have been the roles of local sea ice and remote sea surface temperature in polar amplification, and the response to sea ice, over the recent period since 1979? How does the response to sea ice evolve on decadal and longer timescales? A key goal of PAMIP is to determine the real-world situation using imperfect climate models. Although the experiments proposed here form a coordinated set, we anticipate a large spread across models. However, this spread will be exploited by seeking “emergent constraints” in which model uncertainty may be reduced by using an observable quantity that physically explains the intermodel spread. In summary, PAMIP will improve our understanding of the physical processes that drive polar amplification and its global climate impacts, thereby reducing the uncertainties in future projections and predictions of climate change and variability.
Source: Geoscientific model development
Institutions: Met Office, University of Bath, University of Exeter, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, NSF NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Universitat de Barcelona, Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, University of Bremen, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, Roshydromet, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique, Climat, Environnement, Couplages et Incertitudes, University of California, Irvine, Niigata University, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, International Arctic Research Center
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,725
Funders: National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government, European Commission, Met Office, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, Natural Environment Research Council, Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
Awards: G185048375, G1947995952, G4769228118, Advanced Prediction in Polar regions and beyond: Modelling, observing system design and LInkages associated with ArctiC ClimATE change, Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project, G495187929, G5111299465, Hadley Centre Climate Prediction Programme, High Impact Weather Events in Eurasia: Selected, Simulated and Storified, Verbundprojekt CLIMPRE_INTERDEC, Teilprojekt 1: Die Nutzung von Zusammenhängen zwischen verschiedenen Regionen auf saisonalen bis dekadischen Zeitskalen für eine verbesserte Klimavorhersage
OpenAlex ID: W2806992094