Com qual antecedência conseguimos prever cheias no rio Uruguai usando um modelo hidrológico de grande escala
Year: 2018
Type: article
Abstract: The short and medium-range flow forecasting techniques using large-scale \nhydrological models have several direct applications in the management of natural disasters \nthrough warning systems. The present study is a research study on this type of system, applied in \nthe Uruguay River Basin (RS, SC, Argentina and Uruguay). The objective of this study was to \ninvestigate the predictability of critical events at points of interest in the Uruguay river basin. We \naimed to evaluate how early it is possible to estimate the peak flow in some sites susceptible to \nflooding in the basin. For the present research we selected municipalities that will be initially \nserved by the Geological Service of Brazil (CPRM) warning system in the Uruguay river: Garruchos, \nItaqui, Porto Lucena, São Borja and Uruguaiana. In the evaluation, the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency \ncoefficient (NSE) was used. After the calibration and validation of the model, the predictability \nanalysis was performed based on 15 flood events that occurred between 1980 and 2017 in which \nthe forecasts of daily time-step were compared to a reference simulation. It was verified that \nthere is an increase in the predictability from one day for up to three days, increasing as further \ndownstream the place of interest is located. Also it was evidenced that the predictability especially \nin Uruguaiana city is dependent on where the floods are originated (higher Uruguay basin or Ibicuí \nbasin). These results constitute useful information that may assist managers in decision making \nduring critical events where forecast are provided by the proposed type of modeling
Source: Americanae (AECID Library)
Language: Portuguese
Subfield: Water Science and Technology
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2907428312