Very Strong Atmospheric Methane Growth in the 4 Years 2014–2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement
Year: 2019
Type: article
Abstract: Atmospheric methane grew very rapidly in 2014 (12.7 ± 0.5 ppb/year), 2015 (10.1 ± 0.7 ppb/year), 2016 (7.0 ± 0.7 ppb/year), and 2017 (7.7 ± 0.7 ppb/year), at rates not observed since the 1980s. The increase in the methane burden began in 2007, with the mean global mole fraction in remote surface background air rising from about 1,775 ppb in 2006 to 1,850 ppb in 2017. Simultaneously the 13 C/ 12 C isotopic ratio (expressed as δ 13 C CH4 ) has shifted, now trending negative for more than a decade. The causes of methane's recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and subtropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both. Unfortunately, with limited measurement data sets, it is not currently possible to be more definitive. The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/year in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden. However, anthropogenic methane emissions are relatively very large and thus offer attractive targets for rapid reduction, which are essential if the Paris Agreement aims are to be attained.
Source: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
DOI: 10.1029/2018gb006009
Authors: E. G. Nisbet, M. R. Manning, E. J. Dlugokencky, R. E. Fisher, D. Lowry, S. E. Michel, C. Lund Myhre, S. M. Platt, G. Allen, P. Bousquet, R. Brownlow, M. Cain, J. L. France, O. Hermansen, R. Hossaini, A. E. Jones, I. Levin, A. C. Manning, G. Myhre, J. A. Pyle, B. H. Vaughn, N. J. Warwick, J. W. C. White
Institutions: Royal Holloway University of London, Victoria University of Wellington, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, NILU, University of Manchester, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, University of Groningen, University of Oxford, British Antarctic Survey, Lancaster University, Heidelberg University, University of East Anglia, CICERO Center for International Climate Research, University of Cambridge, National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,500
Awards: G1061571483, G1340933632, G1694973543, G1786383180, G1876743543, G1992586459, G1999278769, Is the Arctic Methane budget changing?, G2428948188, Methane and other greenhouse gases in the Arctic - measurements, process studies and modelling (MAMM), G2638250174, G2716012744, G2816946732, G292285708, G3037806247, G3191126813, G321260508, G3292380907, New methodologies for removal of methane from the atmosphere, G3815700307, G3862895033, G3875615311, G3947803784, G3948457379, G396144793, G4159403194, G4459206572, G4743991735, G4757905163, G486182678, G4883118411, Probing Earth's earliest ecosystems: a multi-proxy study of the ~2.7 Ga Belingwe Greenstone Belt, Zimbabwe, G5117016146, G5183625196, G5282207599, G5383426886, G5698858568, G5821477023, G6099261538, Quantifying methane emissions in remote tropical settings: a new 3D approach, G628477020, G6547476290, G675602735, G6814707283, The Global Methane Budget, G7057563600, G7422014299, G755971016, G7573679373, G7866328432, G8148215852, G8414708304, G8492957505, G8585165044, Investigation of the Southern Methane Anomaly: causes, implications, and relevance to past global events., G8809754431, G9000177816
OpenAlex ID: W2912377319