Eruption Scenarios of Active Volcanoes in Indonesia
Year: 2019
Type: article
Abstract: Eruption scenarios were prepared as possible sequences in event trees for six active volcanoes in Indonesia, that are located near populated areas or have erupted in recent years (Galunggung, Guntur, Kelud, Merapi, Semeru, and Sinabung). The event trees prepared here show sequences of possible eruption phenomena without probabilities on branches and cover sequences experienced in historical and pre-historical eruptions based on archives and field research results. Changing magma discharge rates during eruption sequences were considered for the event tree of Merapi. This conceptual event tree can also be used as a short-term event tree in which forecasting the coming eruption became possible with geophysical and geochemical monitoring data. Eruption event trees prepared for selected time windows cannot illustrate all plausible hazards and risks associated with an eruption. Therefore, hazards and risks generated from an eruption should be considered in different domains from the event tree.
Source: Journal of Disaster Research
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
Awards: Elucidation of runout process of large-scale pyroclastic density currents based on the view point of powder mechanics, and hazard evaluation, Analytical study of the product of volcanic eruption in terms of mathematical statistics for forecasting volcanic eruption sequence, Volcano sector collapse: Effect on its magmatic plumbing and eruption style, Comparative study of lava dome eruptions at Sinabung and Unzen volcanoes
OpenAlex ID: W2914565877