Work

Climatic effects on ice phenology and ice-jam flooding of the Athabasca River in western Canada

Year: 2019

Type: article

Abstract: In cold region environments, any alteration in the hydro-climatic regime can have profound impacts on river ice processes. This paper studies the implications of hydro-climatic trends on river ice processes, particularly on the freeze-up and ice-cover breakup along the Athabasca River in Fort McMurray in western Canada, which is an area very prone to ice-jam flooding. Using a stochastic approach in a one-dimensional hydrodynamic river ice model, a relationship between overbank flow and breakup discharge is established. Furthermore, the likelihood of ice-jam flooding in the future (2041–2070 period) is assessed by forcing a hydrological model with meteorological inputs from the Canadian regional climate model driven by two atmospheric–ocean general circulation climate models. Our results show that the probability of ice-jam flooding for the town of Fort McMurray in the future will be lower, but extreme ice-jam flood events are still probable.

Source: Hydrological Sciences Journal

DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2019.1638927

Authors: Prabin Rokaya, Luis Morales-Marín, Barrie Bonsal, Howard Wheater, Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt

Institutions: University of Saskatchewan, Global Institute for Water Security, Environment and Climate Change Canada

Language: English

Topic: Cryospheric studies and observations

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: bronze

Funders: Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Canada Research Chairs