Work

Climate and society in long‐term perspective: Opportunities and pitfalls in the use of historical datasets

Year: 2019

Type: review

Abstract: Recent advances in paleoclimatology and the growing digital availability of large historical datasets on human activity have created new opportunities to investigate long-term interactions between climate and society. However, noncritical use of historical datasets can create pitfalls, resulting in misleading findings that may become entrenched as accepted knowledge. We demonstrate pitfalls in the content, use and interpretation of historical datasets in research into climate and society interaction through a systematic review of recent studies on the link between climate and (a) conflict incidence, (b) plague outbreaks and (c) agricultural productivity changes. We propose three sets of interventions to overcome these pitfalls, which involve a more critical and multidisciplinary collection and construction of historical datasets, increased specificity and transparency about uncertainty or biases, and replacing inductive with deductive approaches to causality. This will improve the validity and robustness of interpretations on the long-term relationship between climate and society. This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives.

Source: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change

DOI: 10.1002/wcc.611

Authors: Bas J. P. van Bavel, Daniel R. Curtis, Matthew J. Hannaford, Michail Moatsos, Joris Roosen, Tim Soens

Institutions: Utrecht University, Erasmus University Rotterdam, University of Lincoln, University of Antwerp

Language: English

Topic: Geology and Paleoclimatology Research

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,300