Quantification of the Arctic Sea Ice‐Driven Atmospheric Circulation Variability in Coordinated Large Ensemble Simulations
Year: 2019
Type: article
Abstract: A coordinated set of large ensemble atmosphere‐only simulations is used to investigate the impacts of observed Arctic sea ice‐driven variability (SIDV) on the atmospheric circulation during 1979–2014. The experimental protocol permits separating Arctic SIDV from internal variability and variability driven by other forcings including sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. The geographic pattern of SIDV is consistent across seven participating models, but its magnitude strongly depends on ensemble size. Based on 130 members, winter SIDV is ~0.18 hPa2 for Arctic‐averaged sea level pressure (~1.5% of the total variance), and ~0.35 K2 for surface air temperature (~21%) at interannual and longer timescales. The results suggest that more than 100 (40) members are needed to separate Arctic SIDV from other components for dynamical (thermodynamical) variables, and insufficient ensemble size always leads to overestimation of SIDV. Nevertheless, SIDV is 0.75–1.5 times as large as the variability driven by other forcings over northern Eurasia and Arctic.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl085397
Institutions: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, INGV Sezione di Bologna, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Danish Meteorological Institute
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $2,500
OpenAlex ID: W2996796428