A Risk Assessment Model for Dam Combining the Probabilistic and the Nonprobabilistic Methods

Year: 2020

Type: article

Abstract: The dam reliability study is essential for dam operation safety, regarding the complexity in dam failure causes. The assessment of the dam reliability is now mainly probabilistic or nonprobabilistic. The probabilistic method is usually applied to the cases with sufficient knowledge on dam parameters, while the nonprobabilistic method is suitable for the cases with insufficient knowledge on dam parameters. Since a dam can contain multiple parameters, information abundancy can vary among those parameters, and neither the probabilistic method nor the nonprobabilistic method alone is enough for dam reliability assessment. In this paper, the probabilistic method and nonprobabilistic method are modified based on the adjusted first-order second-moment method and the interval analysis method to suit the dam reliability assessment. Based on characterization on these two methods and the research of the fusion method, the secondary performance function of the dam is constructed, and the construction method of the risk assessment model for dam is proposed. Combined with a case study, this paper contributes to the safe operation of the dam.

Source: Mathematical Problems in Engineering

DOI: 10.1155/2020/9518369

Authors: Yantao Zhu, Xinqiang Niu, Jimin Wang, Chongshi Gu, Qiang Sun, Bo Li, Lixian Huang

Institutions: Hohai University, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research, Yalong Hydro (China), University of California, Los Angeles

Language: English

Topic: Dam Engineering and Safety

Subfield: Civil and Structural Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $2,550

Funders: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Government of Jiangsu Province, Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions

OpenAlex ID: W3017837739