Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble
Year: 2020
Type: article
Abstract: Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088662
Authors: Malcolm J Roberts, Alessio Bellucci, Benoit Vannière, Joanne Camp, Christopher David Roberts, Dian Putrashan, Jennifer Veronika Mecking, Kevin Hodges, Laurent Terray, Louis-Philippe Caron, Pier Luigi Vidale, Rein Haarsma, Retish Senan, Jon Seddon, Marie-Pierre Moine, Chihiro Kodama, Yohei Yamada, Colin M. Zarzycki, Paul Ullrich, Ryo Mizuta, Dan Fu, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Lixin Wu, Nan A. Rosenbloom, Qiuying Zhang, Enrico Scoccimarro, Fabrice Chauvin, Sophie Valcke, Hong Wang
Institutions: Met Office, CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Climat, Environnement, Couplages et Incertitudes, Université de Toulouse, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Max Planck Society, Pennsylvania State University, University of California, Davis, Meteorological Research Institute, Texas A&M University, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Ocean University of China, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Météo-France, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $2,500
Funders: National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Newton Fund, Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, European Commission, Met Office, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Office of Science, Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, Natural Environment Research Council, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
Awards: G1247037316, G1703969385, THE NEXT CENTURY WILL SEE UNPRECEDENTED CHANGES TO THE CLIMATE SYSTEM, WHICH ARE IN TURN EXPECTED TO DRIVE CHANGES TO THE CHARACTERISTICS OF METEOROL, G2058401643, The Management and Operation of the National Center for Atmoshperic Research (NCAR), Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate, G4227455053, G434337789, NOC Marine Systems Modelling, G4882040532, G5111299465, G5440127894, Hi Res, Tropical stratosphere-troposphere coupling through cirrus and its role in climate change, PRocess-based climate sIMulation: AdVances in high resolution modelling and European climate Risk Assessment, G7136629702, NCAS Climate and High Impact Weather, G8149449657, AN INTEGRATED EVALUATION OF THE SIMULATED HYDROCLIMATE SYSTEM OF THE CONTINENTAL US, G8788263909
OpenAlex ID: W3030554262