Do crude oil prices infl uence new crop sunfl ower seed futures price discovery in Hungary?
Year: 2015
Type: article
Abstract: Do crude oil prices infl uence new crop sunfl ower seed futures price discovery in Hungary?The oil produced from sunfl ower seed is primarily used for human consumption.It can substitute for other edible vegetable oils, such as rapeseed oil, processed into biodiesel in the European Union.This paper assesses the infl uence of crude oil futures on new crop sunfl ower seed futures in Hungary during the growing seasons of sunfl ower by applying standard cointegration analysis for the period 2004-2013.Tests were performed for the entire period and each sunfl ower growing season.For comparison, the infl uence of Paris rapeseed futures on sunfl ower seed futures was also assessed.The contrasting estimations for the global and seasonal characteristics of the variables suggest that standard cointegration analysis may not be appropriate for multiannual price series of agricultural commodities with strong seasonality in production because it will not capture the periodical shocks in supply and demand.The results are briefl y discussed from the aspect of the fundamentals of the sunfl ower seed market.
DOI: 10.7896/j.1527
Authors: Norbert Potori, András Stark
Institution: Agrárközgazdasági Intézet
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
SDG: Zero hunger
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W3202071960