Year: 2022
Type: preprint
Abstract: An increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) under global warming is global concern. To probe this relationship, regions of where TCs are strong but rare are particularly important. Within this context, the Arabian Sea (AS) and the Gulf of Oman (GO) constitute excellent case-study examples. TCs in the AS and GO are rare phenomena but during the last two decades three strong events (Gonu, Phet and Shaheen) have occurred, leading to a total of 6.07 billion USD in damages and 159 fatalities. In this study we use historical TC records, satellite data, atmospheric and oceanographic models to probe the link between TCs and global warming. The results demonstrate that global warming has modified three important environmental parameters in the AS and GO: 1- there has been an increase in water temperature and density in the Persian Gulf (PG), 2- there has been a northward migration of the monsoon belt and an increase in upwelling on the Oman coast, 3- there has been an increase in heat advection and transfer by cyclonic/anticyclonic Mesoscale Eddy (ME) and geostrophic currents that are involved TC intensification. These processes have led to a shallow warm and high-salinity water plume from the PG to the AS, and an accumulation of the ME center between 16°N and 22°N. Warm geostrophic currents lead the TCs to the Mesoscale Eddy centers, favoring an increase in TC intensity at higher latitudes. As a result, strong TCs have made landfall on the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea coasts. Our study suggests that the frequency of strong TCs will increase due to the effects of global warming. Education programs via international platforms such as the International Ocean Institute (IOI) and UNESCO are required for the countries at risk.
Source: Research Square
Authors: Majid Pourkerman, Nick Marriner, Mohammadali Hamzeh, Gholamreza Mohammadpor, Hamid Lahijani, Morteza Tavakoli, Christophe Morhange, Sedigheh Amjadi, Razyeh Lak
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W4224254760