Statistical modelling of equilibrium-line altitudes of Hintereisferner, central Alps, Austria, 1859–present
Year: 1997
Type: article
Abstract: Equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) are reconstructed for Hintereisferner, Tyrol, Austria, using temperature and precipitation records for the period from 1859 to the present. The basic idea is to calibrate simple statistical models using observations of the ELA over the period 1964–92. Results are compared with those of Kuhn’s glacial–meteorological model of ELA fluctuations. Correlation coefficients between observed and predicted ELAs arc 0.91 for the glacial–meteorological model and 0.98 for the multiple regression model. The calibrated model allows backward extrapolation of the ELA from the longer climatic records (‘Austrian Temperature Series” since 1775; precipitation at Marienberg, South Tyrol, since 1858). ELAs after the glacier maximum of the 1850s were rather high until the 1870s, when they show a trend towards lower values. The lowest values, about 200 m lower than the “1850” average, were finally reached in 1912–14. During the years 1907–26, the ELA of Hintereisferner was lower than the “1850” average in 13 out of 20 years. This led to the widespread glacier advance of the 1920s in the Alps. After this, the ELA rose constantly, reaching its highest value in 1947. From the early 1950s until 1980 there was a trend towards lower ELAs again, which has been succeeded by a period of very high ELAs. The period from the late 1920s to the early 1960s was the longest period of almost constantly high ELAs since the middle of the 19th century.
Source: Annals of Glaciology
Author: Hanns Kerschner
Institution: Universität Innsbruck
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W4256367152