Identification of physical activity and sedentary behaviour dimensions that predict mortality risk in older adults: development of a machine learning model in the Whitehall II accelerometer sub-study and external validation in the CoLaus study
Year: 2022
Type: article
Abstract: Background: Identification of new physical activity (PA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) features relevant for health at older age is important to diversify PA targets in guidelines, as older adults rarely adhere to current recommendations focusing on total duration. We aimed to identify accelerometer-derived dimensions of movement behaviours that predict mortality risk in older populations. Methods: We used data on 21 accelerometer-derived features of daily movement behaviours in 3991 participants of the UK-based Whitehall II accelerometer sub-study (25.8% women, 60-83 years, follow-up: 2012-2013 to 2021, mean = 8.3 years). A machine-learning procedure was used to identify core PA and SB features predicting mortality risk and derive a composite score. We estimated the added predictive value of the score compared to traditional sociodemographic, behavioural, and health-related risk factors. External validation in the Switzerland-based CoLaus study (N = 1329, 56.7% women, 60-86 years, follow-up: 2014-2017 to 2021, mean = 3.8 years) was conducted. Findings: In total, 11 features related to overall activity level, intensity distribution, bouts duration, frequency, and total duration of PA and SB, were identified as predictors of mortality in older adults and included in a composite score. Both in the derivation and validation cohorts, the score was associated with mortality (hazard ratio = 1.10 (95% confidence interval = 1.05-1.15) and 1.18 (1.10-1.26), respectively) and improved the predictive value of a model including traditional risk factors (increase in C-index = 0.007 (0.002-0.014) and 0.029 (0.002-0.055), respectively). Interpretation: The identified accelerometer-derived PA and SB features, beyond the currently recommended total duration, might be useful for screening of older adults at higher mortality risk and for diversifying PA and SB targets in older populations whose adherence to current guidelines is low. Funding: National Institute on Aging; UK Medical Research Council; British Heart Foundation; Wellcome Trust; French National Research Agency; GlaxoSmithKline; Lausanne Faculty of Biology and Medicine; Swiss National Science Foundation.
Source: EClinicalMedicine
Institutions: Inserm, Université Paris Cité, Equipe de Recherche en Epidémiologie Nutritionnelle, Centre de Recherche Épidémiologie et Statistique, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, University of Lausanne, Maastricht University Medical Centre, Maastricht University, University College London, Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire
Language: English
Topic: Physical Activity and Health
Subfield: Physiology
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $4,500
Funders: National Science Foundation, GlaxoSmithKline, Wellcome Trust, British Heart Foundation, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung, Chinese Society of Clinical Oncology, National Institutes of Health, Medical Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, National Institute on Aging
Awards: G1787587971, Cardiovascular diseases and psychiatric disorders in the general population: a prospective follow-up study, G2294100661, Cardiovascular diseases and psychiatric disorders in the general population: a prospective follow-up study, G2681752297, G2827174473, G2957143966, G3010527862, G3091909500, Role of mid- and late-life risk factors in social inequalities in Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias, G3248287424, Family study of specific subthreshold and threshold mood, anxiety, substance use and schizophrenia spectrum syndromes in the general population, Psychiatric disorders in 35 to 65 year-old residents of the city of Lausanne and their association to cardiovasular risk factors: a population based survey, Vascular risk and functional decline in old age: from discovery to translation, G400652325, G4183029016, UCL, Bloomsbury and East London Doctoral Training Partnership, Education, socioeconomic status and Aging: transitions from multimorbidity to functional limitations and mortality, Taking the long view: Identification of plasma protein biomarkers for dementia risk, Taking the long view: Identification of plasma protein biomarkers for dementia risk, G5001906568, G5531419334, G5599442719, G5676749234, G5735209081, G5869794456, G6252682278, Role of intensity, duration and pattern of accelerometer-assessed physical activity for cardiometabolic health, G6715704539, Interactions of antibiotics with bacterial membranes, G6927407676, Crosslinguistic Perspectives on Processing and Learning (X-PPL) 2023, G7189585906, G7262634952, Cardiovascular diseases and psychiatric disorders in the general population: a prospective follow-up study, G74196171, G7975901996, G8253295407, G8337390295, G84288707, G8499801373
OpenAlex ID: W4311258905