Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
Year: 2023
Type: article
Abstract: . Billions of historical climatological observations remain unavailable to science as they exist only on paper, stored in numerous archives around the world. The conversion of these data from paper to digital could transform our understanding of historical climate variations, including extreme weather events. Here we demonstrate how the rescue of such paper observations has improved our understanding of a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and its significant impacts. By assimilating newly rescued atmospheric pressure observations, the storm is now credibly represented in an improved reanalysis of the event. In some locations this storm produced stronger winds than any event during the modern period (1950–2015) and it is in the top-4 storms for strongest winds anywhere over land in England & Wales. As a result, estimates of risk from severe storms, based on modern period data, may need to be revised. Examining the atmospheric structure of the storm suggests that it is a classic Shapiro-Keyser-type cyclone with ‘sting jet’ precursors and associated extreme winds at locations and times of known significant damage. Comparison with both independent observations and qualitative information, such as photographs and written accounts, provides additional evidence of the credibility of the atmospheric reconstruction, including of sub-daily rainfall variations. Simulations of the storm surge resulting from this storm show a large coastal surge of around 2.5 m, comparing favourably with newly rescued tide gauge observations and adding to our confidence in the reconstruction. Combining historical rescued weather observations with modern reanalysis techniques has allowed us to plausibly reconstruct a severe windstorm and associated storm surge from more than 100 years ago, establishing an invaluable end-to-end tool to improve assessments of risks from extreme weather.
Institutions: National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Met Office, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, University of Edinburgh
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,553
Funders: U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, Met Office, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Science, Natural Environment Research Council, Biological and Environmental Research, Climate Program Office, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Awards: G1079818582, G1143651532, G122673668, G1286236842, G1337544421, G1414775356, G1581387393, G1677143136, G1703969385, G1816284028, G2115564622, G223002938, G2857863752, G3083819904, G3432487278, G365575497, G3822150226, G419881185, G42916606, G4501827968, G498139845, G5076365615, G5296923526, G5700176411, G5924610485, G654302390, G7198630863, Global Surface Air Temperature (GloSAT), G7354628648, G7787287669, G805243471, G969889393
OpenAlex ID: W4366975855