Work

Mathematical Model and Simulation of the Spread of COVID-19 with Vaccination, Implementation of Health Protocols, and Treatment

Year: 2023

Type: article

Abstract: This research develops the SVEIHQR model to simulate the spread of COVID-19 with vaccination, implementation of health protocols, and treatment. The population is divided into twelve subpopulations, resulting in a mathematical model of COVID-19 in the form of a system of twelve differential equations with twelve variables. From the model, we obtain the disease-free equilibrium point, the endemic equilibrium point, and the basic reproduction number (R0). The disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable when R0 1 and ∆5 0, where ∆5 is the fifth-order Routh-Hurwitz matrix of the characteristic polynomial of the Jacobian matrix. Additionally, an endemic equilibrium point exists when R0 1. The results of numerical simulations are consistent with the conducted analysis, and the sensitivity analysis reveals that the significant parameters influencing the spread of COVID-19 are the proportion of symptomatic infected individuals and the contact rate with asymptomatic infected individuals.

Source: Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM)

DOI: 10.34312/jjbm.v4i1.19162

Authors: Muhammad Manaqib, Mahmudi Mahmudi, Galuh Prayoga

Institution: Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta

Language: English

Topic: COVID-19 epidemiological studies

Subfield: Modeling and Simulation

Field: Mathematics

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: diamond

Funder: Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta