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Migration and Development: Measuring migration aspirations and the impact of refugee assistance in Turkey, ADMIGOV Deliverable 6.1

Year: 2023
Type: report
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: This report is part of the ADMIGOV WP6 investigating migration aspirations and development interventions. Through an investigation of the migration aspirations of Syrian and Afghan refugees in Turkey, this research lends insight into the policies that shape refugee livelihood and secondary migration. The research team embraced a mixed-methods approach consisting of online surveys with 966 Afghan and Syrian nationals living in Turkey and 45 semi-structured in-person and online interviews. The data collection began face-to-face in 2020 but shifted online due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, online recruitment strategies became critical to data collection, however, this approach does not come without its challenges such as reaching populations where social media/internet is inaccessible or building trust through the online interview process. The COVID-19 pandemic not only had implications for data collection but its further effect on current plans for migration versus ideal aspirations. This study particularly finds that migration aspirations for both Syrian and Afghan refugees are greatly influenced by not only the government policies, but the increasing hostility within their current community, and the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated challenges for refugees in terms of mobility and achieving livelihood. While aspirations among Syrian refugees to move onward remain relatively low, Afghan refugees continue to contemplate further migration to a third country. It is also important to note that aspirations to return for both groups are low. The variation in the legal framework, or development interventions for different groups of asylum seekers also has implications for such aspirations. Nonetheless, both communities continue to be subject to hostilities in the host community and exploitation in the informal labor market. The key focus of this project includes the extent to which assistance improves the situation of refugees and its relationship with migration aspirations. Through this research, we measured the impact of programs such as the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) as well as conditional cash transfers for education (CCTE). The investigation of cash and in-kind assistance for refugees in Turkey in general, particularly of ESSN which supports nearly one-third of Syrians and a quarter of Afghans in our sample, finds that only half of the beneficiaries reported an improvement in their living conditions. These statistics are in line with our findings from interviews that indicate a lower positive response rate from Afghan refugees than Syrians, which further points towards policies structured around the vulnerabilities of Syrian refugees. Our findings do not indicate a causal relationship between the reception of assistance and lower migration aspirations to move on. Other factors to consider also include wealth or current transnational networks in place that may better help explain aspirations to stay or onward migration aspirations. Our findings suggest the potential influence of combining cash assistance/aid schemes and increased work opportunities in the formal labor market may suggest further avenues to improving refugee livelihood and may potentially affect migration aspirations. Furthermore, building awareness and transparency on why some development interventions are constructed the way they are can help tackle hostilities as in the case of Syrian refugees that have been stigmatized for programs directed towards them. Overall, migration aspirations should be understood through a holistic approach, realizing the variation between communities for moving on, staying put, or returning.
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8219101
Institution: Koç University
Language: English
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W4385960800
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Cited by: 3
Related to: 10