Year: 2023
Type: article
Abstract: To solve the problem of industrial control network (ICN) security situation prediction, this paper proposes a security situation prediction model for ICN based on evidential reasoning (ER) and belief rule base (BRB). First, this paper analyzes multiple factors influencing the security situation of the ICN, establishes a framework for security situation assessment, employs the ER algorithm for attribute fusion, and derives the security situation value of the ICN. Second, using historical data combined with expert knowledge, a security situation prediction model for ICN based on the BRB is constructed. Additionally, an extended projection covariance matrix adaptive evolution strategy (EP-CMA-ES) optimization algorithm is proposed, which is employed to optimize the parameters of the prediction model. The model not only comprehensively uses qualitative knowledge and quantitative data, but also integrates more uncertain information, and the reasoning process is interpretable. It also solves the subjectivity problem of expert knowledge, overcomes the problem of small amount of data caused by the difficulty of collecting industrial control safety data, and improves the accuracy of model prediction. Finally, prediction experiments were conducted on industrial datasets, confirming the feasibility and effectiveness of the security situation prediction model for ICN and the EP-CMA-ES optimization algorithm proposed in this paper.
Source: IEEE Access
Authors: Yuhe Wang, Yu Yang, Rencai Gao, Shiming Li, Yan Zhao
Language: English
Subfield: Information Systems
Field: Computer Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,950
Awards: G7543705833, G8693103939
OpenAlex ID: W4388966596