Year: 2023
Type: dissertation
Abstract: Coastal flooding is one of the most frequent natural hazards around the globe and can have devastating societal impacts. It is caused by extreme storm tides, which are composed of storm surges and tides, on top of mean sea levels. Due to socio-economic developments in the world’s coastal zones, the impacts of coastal floods have increased in recent decades. In addition, projected changes in the frequency and intensity of storms, as well as sea level rise due to climate change are expected to increase the coastal flood hazard. These trends show that it is crucial to further improve coastal flood hazard assessments to support coastal flood management. A lack of understanding of the influence of tropical cyclones (TCs) on storm tide level return periods (RPs) currently prevails. Available meteorological data does not adequately capture the structure of TCs, and the temporal length of this data is too short to accurately compute RPs because TCs are low-probability events. Existing large scale coastal flood hazard assessments assume an infinite flood duration and do not capture the physical hydrodynamic processes that drive coastal flooding. Furthermore, future changes in the frequency and intensity of TCs and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are often neglected in coastal flood hazard assessments. As such, the goal of this thesis is to improve global storm tide modelling through the better representation of TC-related extremes and enable dynamic flood mapping in both current and future climates. The research in this thesis contributes to ongoing efforts in the coastal risk community to better understand coastal flood hazards and risks on a global scale. The COAST-RP dataset can help identify hotspot regions most prone to coastal flooding. Such information can then be used to determine where more detailed local-scale coastal flood hazard assessments are most needed. Combining data from COAST-RP with the HGRAPHER method allows us to move away from planar towards more advanced dynamic inundation methods. This will improve the accuracy of the coastal flood hazard maps. Lastly, the developed TC intensity Δ method that is applicable to different kinds of future climate TC datasets opens the door to studying the future intensity of TCs and corresponding storm surges by placing them in a future climate.
DOI: 10.5463/thesis.465
Author: Job Christiaan Maria Dullaart
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
OpenAlex ID: W4389966904