Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change – progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: . The climate science community aims to improve our understanding of climate change due to anthropogenic influences on atmospheric composition and the Earth's surface. Yet not all climate interactions are fully understood and diversity in climate model experiments persists as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article synthesizes current challenges and emphasizes opportunities for advancing our understanding of climate change and model diversity. The perspective of this article is based on expert views from three multi-model intercomparison projects (MIPs) – the Precipitation Driver Response MIP (PDRMIP), the Aerosol and Chemistry MIP (AerChemMIP), and the Radiative Forcing MIP (RFMIP). While there are many shared interests and specialisms across the MIPs, they have their own scientific foci and specific approaches. The partial overlap between the MIPs proved useful for advancing the understanding of the perturbation-response paradigm through multi-model ensembles of Earth System Models of varying complexity. It specifically facilitated contributions to the research field through sharing knowledge on best practices for the design of model diagnostics and experimental strategies across MIP boundaries, e.g., for estimating effective radiative forcing. We discuss the challenges of gaining insights from highly complex models that have specific biases and provide guidance from our lessons learned. Promising ideas to overcome some long-standing challenges in the near future are kilometer-scale experiments to better simulate circulation-dependent processes where it is possible, and machine learning approaches for faster and better sub-grid scale parameterizations where they are needed. Both would improve our ability to adopt a smart experimental design with an optimal tradeoff between resolution, complexity and simulation length. Future experiments can be evaluated and improved with sophisticated methods that leverage multiple observational datasets, and thereby, help to advance the understanding of climate change and its impacts.
Source: Geoscientific model development
Authors: Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Robert Pincus, Paul Griffiths, Ryan Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, Piers M. Forster
Institutions: Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Met Office, University of Exeter, University of Leeds, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, University of Cambridge, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Columbia University, Goddard Space Flight Center, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, University of California, Riverside, Aarhus University, Imperial College London, Stockholm University, Technical University of Crete, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, University of Oxford, University of Reading, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,725
Funders: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, European Space Agency, Leverhulme Trust, Met Office, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, AXA Research Fund, GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel, Nuclear Safety and Security Commission, Norges Forskningsråd, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Natural Environment Research Council, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, H2020 European Research Council
Awards: G1703969385, 酵素モデル化合物の合成とその触媒作用に関する研究, G185048375, G1854246499, G1947995952, G2272775571, Assessment on climate impacts of short-lived climate forcers by composition and region with hierarchical numerical models, G259762485, G3062547663, G3506063071, G3658757935, G4055512844, SFB 1211: Evolution der Erde und des Lebens unter extremer Trockenheit, G4345677741, SFB 1502: Regionaler Klimawandel: Die Rolle von Landnutzung und Wassermanagement, From emissions to climate impacts and back again, Atmospheric Composition and Radiative forcing changes due to UN International Ship Emissions regulations (ACRUISE), Reining in the upper bound on Earth’s Climate Sensitivities, G7688329288, TerraFIRMA: Future Impacts Risks and Mitigation Actions
OpenAlex ID: W4393083391