Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature
Year: 2024
Type: article
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979-2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17-13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56-14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27-15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics.
Source: Environment International
Authors: Yao Wu, Bo Wen, Antonio Gasparrini, Ben Armstrong, Francesco Sera, Eric Lavigne, Shanshan Li, Yuming Guo, Ala Overcenco, Aleš Urban, Alexandra Schneider, Alireza Entezari, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Antonella Zanobetti, Antonis Analitis, Ariana Zeka, Aurelio Tobias, Baltazar Nunes, Barrak Alahmad, Bertil Forsberg, Carmen Íñiguez, Caroline Ameling, César De la Cruz Valencia, Danny Houthuijs, Do Van Dung, Dominic Roye, Ene Indermitte, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Fiorella Acquaotta, Francesca de'Donato, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar, Haidong Kan, Hanne Krage Carlsen, Hans Orru, Ho Kim, Iulian-Horia Holobaca, Jan Kyselý, Joana Madureira, Joel Schwartz, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Klea Katsouyanni, Magali Hurtado Diaz, Martina S. Ragettli, Masahiro Hashizume, Mathilde Pascal, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Niilo Ryti, Noah Scovronick, Paola Michelozzi, Patricia Matus Correa, Patrick Goodman, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Raanan Raz, Rosana Abrutzky, Samuel Osorio, Shih-Chun Pan, Shilpa Rao, Shilu Tong, Souzana Achilleos, Tran Ngoc Dang, Valentina Colistro, Veronika Huber, Whanhee Lee, Xerxes Seposo, Yasushi Honda, Yoonhee Kim, Yue Leon Guo, Shanshan Li, Yuming Guo
Institutions: Monash University, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, University of Florence, University of Ottawa, Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection, Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Helmholtz Munich, Hakim Sabzevari University, University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Harvard University, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Brunel University of London, Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Nagasaki University, National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Umeå University
Language: English
Subfield: Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,980
Funders: Sight Research UK, Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, Grantová Agentura České Republiky, Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality, China Scholarship Council, Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, Medical Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council, Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, National Cancer Institute
Awards: G119259650, G1417846746, New Knowledge and Research Capacity for Health Impacts of Global Environmental Change with Big Data, Novel Approach and New Technology, G2603572428, G2634462310, G2944146324, Half a degree Additional warming: Prognosis and Projected Impacts on Health (HAPPI-Health), Health Risk Assessment of Bushfire Smoke on Children and Pregnancy Outcomes, G3386104652, G4002619424, G4094040474, G4271316059, G5382695637, G662868562, G7087250647, G7268868823, Climate Change and Human Health in Asia: Current Impacts, Future Risks, and Health Benefits of Mitigation Policies, The case time series design: a new tool for big data analysis, G769035357, Links between weather, epidemics and seasonal mortality patterns, Improving the assessment of environmental health risks with new technology and novel approaches, Multi-Country Study on Health Effects of Bushfire Air Pollution, G8801740008
OpenAlex ID: W4396554369