Work

Prospective life cycle assessment of climate and biodiversity impacts of meat‐based and plant‐forward meals: A case study of Indonesian and German meal options

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: The emerging field of prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA) offers opportunities for evaluating the environmental impacts of possible future consumption shifts. One such shift involves a transition from meat-based to plant-forward diets, acknowledged to mitigate environmental impacts of the food system under present day conditions. Current diets are often meat intensive ("meat-based"), whilst "plant-forward" diets include mainly plant-based foods, encompassing flexitarian, vegetarian, and vegan diets. Here we illustrate the application of pLCA in a case study of meal options, implementing shared socio-economic pathway scenarios in the LCA background system to represent future production conditions. We assess the climate footprints and land-based biodiversity footprints of a typical meat-based meal in Germany and Indonesia compared to a plant-forward meal in both countries (i.e., four meals), now and in 2050. Our findings show that the plant-forward alternative maintains a lower impact per serving in all future scenarios. At the same time, the reduction in impact for the meat-based meals is more pronounced in future scenarios due to shifts in the agricultural system. Our findings highlight the importance of supply-side measures to produce lower-impact ingredients, complementing demand-side interventions to reshape food consumption. Results are further evaluated in cultural and nutritional contexts, highlighting the practical decision-making constraints faced by consumers. We find potential "leakage" effects in calories and nutrition when choosing a lower-impact, plant-forward meal. These leakage effects should be considered in future studies seeking to evaluate the environmental implications of meal substitutions in the context of broader dietary requirements.

Source: Journal of Industrial Ecology

DOI: 10.1111/jiec.13549