Year: 2022
Type: article
Abstract: Amongst a considered set of trading partners, does proportional bilateral trade flow in matrix form have autoregressive predictability? In this paper, the standard method of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression is modified for the input and prediction of matrices representing proportional exports of trading partners. Considering a small sample of trading partners and using the matrix regression model proposed, we find some evidence of autoregressive predictability. This predictability can be employed to predict future trade flows among different countries. Our findings provide some potential policy implications on international trade.
Institution: Clarkson University
Language: English
Topic: Global trade and economics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4402836367