Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes and risks to the services that they provide to people. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established to develop model ensembles for projecting long‐term impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine ecosystems while informing policy at spatio‐temporal scales relevant to the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) framework. While contributing FishMIP models have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections remain, particularly in coastal and shelf seas where most of the world's fisheries occur. Furthermore, previous FishMIP climate impact projections have been limited by a lack of global standardized historical fishing data, low resolution of coastal processes, and uneven capabilities across the FishMIP community to dynamically model fisheries. These features are needed to evaluate how reliably the FishMIP ensemble captures past ecosystem states ‐ a crucial step for building confidence in future projections. To address these issues, we have developed FishMIP 2.0 comprising a two‐track framework for: (a) Model evaluation and attribution of past changes and (b) future climate and socioeconomic scenario projections. Key advances include improved historical climate forcing, which captures oceanographic features not previously resolved, and standardized global fishing forcing to test fishing effects systematically across models. FishMIP 2.0 is a crucial step toward a detection and attribution framework for changing marine ecosystems and toward enhanced policy relevance through increased confidence in future ensemble projections. Our results will help elucidate pathways toward achieving sustainable development goals.

Source: Earth s Future

DOI: 10.1029/2023ef004402

Institutions: University of Tasmania, Centre for Marine Socioecology, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Ifremer, Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement, Marine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Louisiana State University, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, University of Cape Town, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Griffith University, Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, University of California, Los Angeles, Technical University of Denmark, University of British Columbia, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Dalhousie University, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, CSIRO Environment, Ecopath International Initiative, University of British Columbia, Okanagan Campus, Universidad de Cádiz, Instituto de Ciencias Marinas de Andalucía, Institut de Ciències del Mar, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Queensland University of Technology, University of Bergen, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center

Language: English

Topic: Marine and fisheries research

Subfield: Aquatic Science

Field: Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Domain: Life Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Life below water

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,890

Funders: National Science Foundation, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, European Commission, European Cooperation in Science and Technology, University of Tasmania, National Research Foundation, Nuclear Safety and Security Commission, Norges Forskningsråd, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, Center for High Performance Computing, HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Climate Program Office, HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council

Awards: G1564749776, G1643480565, Advancing understanding of Cumulative Impacts on European marine biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services for human wellbeing, G1674743988, G1693976111, G1695107808, Track 4: Advanced CI Coordination Ecosystem: Monitoring and Measurement Services, G2108643927, G2173962192, G2811767320, G2815302120, G3078084210, G3339971651, Sustainable management of mesopelagic resources, G392945534, Track 1: ACCESS Resource Allocations Marketplace and Platform Services (RAMPS), G4188918460, G4248962021, G434337789, Collaborative Research: Evaluating Climate Change and Kill Mechanisms Associated with the End-Cretaceous Mass Extinction: A Model-Data Comparison Approach, ACO: An Open CI Ecosystem to Advance Scientific Discovery (OpenCI), Track 3: COre National Ecosystem for CyberinfrasTructure (CONECT), G6128126499, Towards the Sustainable Development of the Atlantic Ocean: Mapping and Assessing the present and future status of Atlantic marine ecosystems under the influence of climate change and exploitation, G649902954, G6861619220, Climate Change and Future Marine Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity, Collaborative Research: GCR: Generating Actionable Research to Investigate Combined Climate Intervention Strategies for Stakeholder Use, G726436738, G8230826019, Track 2: Customized Multi-tier Assistance, Training, and Computational Help (MATCH) for End User ACCESS to CI, G8541865342, G8654649027, G8953623867, G8971726105

OpenAlex ID: W4405659547