Transition process detection method of abrupt climate change
Year: 2025
Type: conference-abstract
Abstract: Traditional abrupt climate change detection method often overlooks the process of the abrupt change. Considering the abrupt change process of climate change is conducive to further understanding the details of climate change. We propose the concept of the transition process of abrupt climate change and develop a climate transition process detection technology based on nonlinear models. Through dynamic segmented fitting, we identify the start time (state) and end time (state) of the abrupt change, as well as the stability parameters of the transition process, which are physical quantities that characterize the change process, and finely depict the characteristics of the transition process. Furthermore, based on the principle of critical slowing down, we derive generalized velocity and generalized force as early warning signals of abrupt climate change. During the change process, we also demonstrate the quantitative relationship between parameters during the system's change process, that is, the product of the degree of change stability and the square of the change amplitude is directly proportional to the change speed. This quantitative relationship has been confirmed in the observational data of global sea surface temperature. On this basis, prediction technology for climate turning points can be developed. This prediction technology has successfully predicted a transition process of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
Authors: Pengcheng Yan, Cailing Zhao, Hong Li
Institution: Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W4408486409