Modeling the severity–yield relationship and economic damage threshold for white spot epidemics in the second-season maize in Brazil
Year: 2025
Type: preprint
Abstract: Maize white spot (MWS) caused by Pantoea ananatis in Brazil is a yield-limiting disease. However, recent studies have not quantitatively assessed the relationship between disease severity and crop yield. In this study, we evaluated this association using Fisher's Z (Z) and the correlation coefficient (𝑟), as well as meta-analytic and random-coefficients models, from which we estimated the intercept (β0) and slope (β1) of the regressions. We also tested the influence of potential moderator variables (yield class, severity class, and region). Finally, we conducted a simulation to determine potential values for the economic damage threshold (EDT) to support management decisions. The results showed a significant association between white spot severity and maize yield (Z = 0.51; 𝑟 = -0.47). Both models revealed a negative relationship between these variables. In the meta-analytic model, the estimated coefficients were β0 = 7,616.61 kg/ha and β1 = -60.22 (P < 0.001), while in the random-coefficients model, they were β0 = 7,555.61 kg/ha and β1 = -57.53 (P < 0.001). No moderator variable was statistically significant for the slope (P > 0.06), but yield class, as expected, had a significant effect on the intercept (P < 0.0001). The ratio between the slope and intercept allowed us to estimate the disease damage coefficient, which was approximately -0.80 % (95% CI = -1.06 to -0.55), and the mean EDT (disease severity) value was 2.14%. These findings highlight white spot disease as a limiting factor for maize yield and provide valuable insights for optimizing disease control strategies.
Source: OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)
Authors: Ana Carolyne Costa de Carvalho, Karla Braga, Adriano Augusto de Paiva Custódio, Marcelo G. Canteri, Lucas Henrique Fantin, Carlos M. Utiamada, Hercules D. Campos, Dagma D. Silva-Araújo, Rodrigo V. Costa, Aildson P. Duarte, Alexandre A. Costa, Aline G. Carvalho, Ana Claudia Ruschel Mochko, André L. Silva, Dionathan W. Lujan, Fernanda C. L. Medeiros, Fernanda C. Juliatti, Fernando C. Juliatti, Gisèle M. Fantin, João Mauricio Trentini Roy, Fernando J. Grigolli, José Nunes-Júnior, Marina Senger, Nédio R. Tormen, Emerson Medeiros Del Ponte
Language: English
Subfield: Plant Science
Domain: Life Sciences
SDG: Zero hunger
Open Access status: green
Award: G3835319182
OpenAlex ID: W4409640451