Using observations of escaping H/He to constrain the atmospheric composition of sub-Neptunes
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: ABSTRACT The internal composition of sub-Neptunes remains a prominent unresolved question in exoplanetary science. We present a technique to place constraints on envelope mean molecular weight that utilizes observations of escaping hydrogen or helium exospheres. This method is based on a simple time-scale argument, which states that sub-Neptunes require a sufficiently large hydrogen or helium reservoir to explain ongoing escape at their observed rates. This then naturally leads to an upper limit on atmospheric mean molecular weight. We formalize this argument within a Bayesian inference model and apply it to the archetypal sub-Neptunes GJ-436 b, TOI-776 b and TOI-776 c, which have all been observed to be losing significant hydrogen content as well as relatively featureless transit spectra when observed with James Webb Space Telescope. Combining constraints from atmospheric escape and transit spectroscopy in the case of TOI-776 c allows us to tentatively rule out the high mean molecular weight scenario, pointing towards a low mean molecular weight atmosphere with high-altitude aerosols muting spectral features in the infrared. Finally, we reframe our analysis to the hycean candidate K2-18 b, which has also been shown to host a tentative escaping hydrogen exosphere. If such a detection is robust, we infer a hydrogen-rich envelope mass fraction of $\log _{10} f_\text{env} = -1.67\pm 0.78$, which is inconsistent with the hycean scenario at the $\sim 4\sigma$ level. This latter result requires further observational follow-up to confirm.
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,046
OpenAlex ID: W7125218756