Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Turnover in species composition often lags behind the pace of climate change, resulting in mismatches between climate and communities. However, the impact of these community-climate disequilibria on ecosystem functions is rarely considered, and current methods for measuring disequilibria assume that species ranges were, until recently, in equilibrium with climate. Here, we develop a simple theoretical model to address both of these problems by linking community-climate disequilibrium with ecosystem functioning. We show how disequilibrium can impair functioning in the near-term even when climate change is expected to enhance functioning in the long-term. Responses are most likely to change over time in communities where turnover is slow, the impact of disequilibrium counteracts the direct effects of climate on ecosystem function, and pre-existing disequilibrium is large. These findings emphasise the importance of precise and unbiased estimates of community-climate disequilibria for improving ecological forecasts. By fitting our model to time series of both climate and ecosystem function from a metacommunity simulation, we show the potential for community-climate disequilibrium to be inferred without direct knowledge about species' distributions or climatic tolerances. We end by outlining a research agenda to apply dynamic disequilibrium concepts and test novel hypotheses across diverse ecosystems.
Source: Ecology Letters
DOI: 10.1111/ele.70314
Authors: Michael Stemkovski, Michael H. Cortez, Joey R. Bernhardt, Kelvyn K. Bladen, John B. Bradford, Kyra Clark‐Wolf, Margaret E. K. Evans, Loretta C. Johnson, Abigail J. Lynch, Melissa A. Pastore, Malin L. Pinsky, Christine R. Rollinson, Oliver Selmoni, Anthony P. Walker, John W. Williams, Peter B. Adler
Institutions: Utah State University, Florida State University, University of Guelph, United States Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, University of Arizona, Kansas State University, Climate Adaptation Science Centers, National Climate Adaptation Science Center, US Forest Service, Northern Research Station, University of California, Santa Cruz, Morton Arboretum, Carnegie Institution for Science, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, University of Wisconsin–Madison
Language: English
Subfield: Nature and Landscape Conservation
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Climate action, Life on land
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W7125478140