Macroeconomic and Structural Drivers of Non-Hydrocarbon Tax Revenue Performance in Algeria: An Empirical TimeSeries Analysis Using the ARDL Approach (1995–2022)
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This study investigates the macroeconomic and structural determinants of non-hydrocarbon tax revenues in Algeria over the period 1995-2022, with the objective of identifying the key variables influencing the sustainability and effectiveness of public revenue mobilization outside the hydrocarbons sector.Given Algeria's long-standing dependence on hydrocarbon revenues, strengthening non-oil tax collection has become a central policy priority for enhancing fiscal resilience and reducing vulnerability to external shocks.The study employs a mixed methodological framework combining descriptive-analytical analysis with econometric modeling.Stepwise regression is first used to identify the most influential explanatory variables, including tax exemptions, tax pressure, the size of the tax base, and trade openness.Subsequently, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied to examine both short-run and long-run relationships between non-hydrocarbon tax revenues and the selected macroeconomic variables.Unit root tests confirm that the variables are integrated of order I(0) and I(1), justifying the use of the ARDL bounds testing approach.The empirical results indicate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between non-hydrocarbon tax revenues and the explanatory variables.In particular, expansion of the tax base and improvements in economic activity exert a positive and statistically significant impact on tax revenues, while excessive tax exemptions and weaknesses in tax compliance negatively affect revenue performance.Short-run dynamics further reveal adjustment mechanisms that reflect structural rigidities within the Algerian tax system.The findings underscore the importance of broadening the tax base, rationalizing tax exemptions, reducing tax evasion, and enhancing administrative efficiency in order to strengthen
DOI: 10.56334/sei/9.2.6
Authors: Ouis Aridj, Akram Chetih, Yasmine Amroune
Language: English
Topic: Economic and Fiscal Studies
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W7125500515