Dövi̇z Kuru Hareketleri̇ni̇n Ti̇caret Dengesi̇ Üzeri̇ndeki̇ Etki̇si̇: Akdeni̇z Ülkeleri̇ Örneği̇
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The aim of this study is to examine the effect of the real exchange rate on the trade balance in selected Mediterranean countries. The analysis is conducted using annual data covering the period 1990–2023 for eight countries in the region. The trade balance is modeled as a function of the real exchange rate, energy imports, and economic size represented by GDP. To obtain robust estimates in the presence of heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation, and cross-sectional dependence, the fixed-effects Driscoll–Kraay estimator is employed. The empirical findings indicate that an increase in the real exchange rate has a statistically significant and negative effect on the trade balance. Moreover, energy imports are found to exert considerable pressure on external balance. In contrast, the coefficient of GDP is not statistically significant, suggesting that economic size does not play a decisive role in explaining trade balance dynamics in the sample countries. Overall, the results highlight the importance of exchange rate stability and reduced energy dependence for improving external balance.
Authors: Ebru Topçu, Elif Sarıçiçek
Language: English
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W7127040750