Sol-terra Final Report (public)
Year: 2017
Type: report
Abstract: Final report of the SOL-TERRA Space Weather Roadmap project funded by UKSA CEOI-ST RP10G0348A03 Contact: [email protected] for further information. EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe effects of severe Space Weather have the capacity to disrupt our daily activities here on Earth and also the satellite technology we increasingly rely upon for telecommunications, terrestrial weather forecasting and navigation, positioning and even some of our clocks. Being able to accurately forecast space weather to provide warning of space weather events is therefore vital, but the ability to accurately forecast Space Weather is still far behind terrestrial weather forecasts. The Met Office now have an operational Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC), where highly-trained forecasters use computer models to help provide warnings of possible events, their potential impacts, their chronology and security/safety factors and concerns. Their objective is to improve forecast accuracy. This requires having both better models and a coupled system that represents the whole Sun-Earth (SOL-TERRA) environment, as well as the path of the solar wind, coronal mass ejections and energetic particles through that environment and their interactions with it. Many models have been developed in academia in the UK, US and elsewhere, but typically with the aim of researching only specific areas of the Sun-Earth system; their suitability within a coupled Space Weather forecast system needs to be investigated in detail. Furthermore, to be appropriate for operational forecasting they need to be validated, capable of producing output before the space weather impacts are felt, able to couple to other models, be robust, and have good prospects for maintenance and evolution. The models must also be supported by the appropriate system and architecture so as to provide a high-quality service. Within the SOL-TERRA National Space Technology Programme (NSTP) fast-track project, RHEA, the UK Met Office and STFC, with inputs from UK and International academia and institutes, have identified over 80 different models in four different categories covering the entire Sun-Earth domain. These models were assessed on the basis of 12 different scientific criteria and then against user and operational requirements provided by the UK Met Office in order to determine their scope and applicability, performance, validation status, quality, coupling with other models and their scope for evolution. 27 different models across the 5 categories we identified as suitable candidates for use in a SOL-TERRA system, showing there is considerable choice and a vibrant ecosystem of space weather models. The understanding gained from the model survey and assessment was used as an input into the development of a high-level system architecture for realising an operational SOL-TERRA system. The architecture introduced the idea of a conceptual data model to help support the integration of a varied set of models in an efficient and cost effective manner but is otherwise based on proven run-time architectures and supports deployment to High Performance Computing (HPC) environments or to public or private clouds. A roadmap for the realisation of an operational end-to-end space weather forecast modelling system was developed to identify the overall time scale and the main areas where further work would be needed to achieve this. The need for a SOL-TERRA system is clear, there is a wide range of suitable models to choose from and the technology exists to integrate these models into a coherent Sun-Earth modelling system. Better space weather forecasting is critical to the protection of the UK national infrastructure and therefore steps should be taken to support funding of the development, validation and operation of the system.
Institutions: Met Office, Science and Technology Facilities Council
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
Funder: United Kingdom Space Agency
OpenAlex ID: W7127078786