Sea Ice Collision Risk Assessment Based on Bayesian Network Modeling
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: To address the problem of sea ice collisions threatening offshore drilling operations in polar regions, this paper proposes a Bayesian network-based collision risk assessment model for drillships. The model integrates large ice floe/iceberg conditions, natural environmental factors, and geometric factors derived from the ship's shape, size, distance, and azimuth. Using iceberg routes, scenario simulations are conducted to evaluate collision probabilities and provide time-dependent risk values. Results demonstrate that the method yields reasonable and consistent assessments of drillship-ice interactions. The proposed method enables automatic collision risk assessment and can be applied to unattended management systems to enhance the safety of polar drilling operations.
Language: English
Subfield: Ocean Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W7127098993