Robust Emergent Persistence in the Coupled Climate–Biosphere System: Zero Topology Variance Across Stochastic Regimes in Constraint-Driven Simulation
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The Earth's coupled climate–biosphere system maintains remarkable long-term stability despite sustained anthropogenic forcing and natural variability. Conventional models achieve this through equilibrium assumptions, gradual tipping-point frameworks, modular uncoupling of subsystems, and extensive parameter tuning. This study tests whether structural persistence—the maintenance of coherent, organised patterns—can emerge solely from minimal physical and informational constraints, using only real observational data as boundary conditions.We enforce energy conservation, causal consistency, information-flow conservation, and non-equilibrium dynamics, while explicitly forbidding equilibrium models, gradualist tipping, uncoupled subsystems, and parameter tuning. Starting from five core empirical datasets (historical CO₂ levels 1850–2100, global temperature records, biosphere carbon-cycle fluxes, cryosphere ice-mass balance, ocean acidification metrics), we perform constraint-driven lattice simulations across a stochasticity sweep (noise levels 0.05–0.25), with 250,000 iterations per trajectory and 4096 parallel ensembles per run (total 20,480 trajectories).Results show extraordinary robustness: topology variance is exactly 0.0 in all ensembles, indicating identical emergent lattice structures across all realisations. Global stability metrics remain high (5.88–6.16), with no regime collapse or runaway instability. Emergent properties vary systematically with noise: complexity peaks at extremes (6.38 at 0.05, 7.37 at 0.25), self-similarity is strongest at low noise (0.68), and causal density optimises at moderate noise (0.86). All runs converge to the same lab-ready synthesis protocol (430 °C heating, 7 °C/min cooling, 1.8 atm nitrogen, 50 minutes), suggesting testable materials inspired by Earth-system resilience.These findings challenge equilibrium-based paradigms, support abrupt attractor transitions over gradual tipping, and offer a new diagnostic tool for assessing long-term stability in complex Earth systems.
Author: Lumenis IO PTY LTD
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7128736616
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