Strategic development trends in hydrological forecasting to ensure navigation safety and efficiency in Russia until 2035
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Reliable hydrological forecasting is critical for ensuring the safety of navigation and the efficiency of water transport in conditions of increasing frequency and intensity of hazardous hydrological phenomena. This article analyzes the current state of the Roshydromet hydrological forecasting system from the perspective of shipping objectives. Key challenges limiting its potential were identified: technological lag, a lack of real-time data, and insufficient forecast detail for port waters and inland waterways. Based on the system approach, strategic development trends until 2035 were formulated, including digitalization, the implementation of ensemble and probabilistic methods, the development of an observation network, and specialized services for the transport industry. Target indicators were proposed, such as increasing the accuracy of storm warnings and ice forecasts to 98%, as well as the creation of integrated decision support systems for captains and pilots. The strategy implementation will significantly improve navigation safety, optimize logistics, and minimize economic risks for maritime and river transport.
Author: Nadezhda A. Volkova
Language: English
Subfield: Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W7147622751