Work

Horizon scanning to identify range-shifting forest pests

Year: 2026

Type: preprint

Abstract: Description This repository contains the underlying data, climate-matching results, and full assessments for a horizon scan of forest arthropod pests projected to expand northward into the Northeastern United States under mid-century climate change. The scan adapts the standard rapid risk assessment framework of Roy et al. (2014) by replacing 'likelihood of arrival' with 'likelihood of range expansion,' replacing 'likelihood of establishment' with 'likelihood of spread within the expanded range,' and integrating climate matching under CMIP6 SSP585 projections to 2050, with a Köppen-Geiger fallback for taxa with sparse occurrence records.

DOI: 10.17605/osf.io/gnsu8

Authors: Deah Lieurance, Evans, Annette E., Lockwood, Julie, Cesilia Aguilar, Al-Shayeb, Sofia M. A., Earnest, Coleman R., Meyerson, Laura A., Richman, Alanna D., Suzzi-Simmons, Amanda, Nunez-Mir, Gabriela C.

Language: English

Topic: Forest Insect Ecology and Management

Subfield: Ecology

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Life on land, Climate action

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W7159995751

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