Association between Cumulative Triglyceride Glucose-Body Mass Index and Diabetes Incidence in Middle-aged and Elderly Chinese Population: A Prospective Nationwide Cohort Study Based on the CHARLS Database
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: Purpose :The present study aimed to evaluate the association between cumulative TyG-BMI and the incidence of diabetes in a nationally representative sample of middle-aged and elderly Chinese adults. Methods : This prospective cohort study utilized data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), including participants aged ≥45 years. Cumulative TyG-BMI was calculated by integrating baseline and follow-up TyG-BMI values. The primary outcome was incident diabetes. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios ( OR ) and 95% confidence intervals ( CI ). In addition, restricted cubic splines (RCS), and subgroup analyses were used to explore the association between cumulative TyG-BMI and diabetes incidence. Results : Among the 4,945 participants included in the final analysis, 547 (11.06%) developed diabetes. The average cumulative TyG-BMI was 810.27 ± 139.92. After adjusting for multiple covariates, participants in the second, third, and fourth quartiles of cumulative TyG-BMI had progressively higher odds of developing diabetes compared to those in the lowest quartile, with OR (95% CI ) of 1.355 (0.973–1.886), 2.040 (1.453–2.864), and 3.391 (2.311–4.975), respectively ( P trend < 0.001). Furthermore, each standard deviation increase in cumulative TyG-BMI was associated with a 64.1% increase in diabetes risk ( OR : 1.641; 95% CI : 1.439–1.873). RCS analysis revealed a positive linear association between cumulative TyG-BMI and diabetes incidence ( P overall < 0.001; P nonlinearity = 0.308). Subgroup analysis showed that the association was significantly modified by sleep duration ( P interaction = 0.029). Conclusion : Cumulative exposure to elevated TyG-BMI levels is independently associated with an increased risk of diabetes among middle-aged and elderly individuals in China.
Source: Research Square
Institution: Kunming Third People's Hospital
Language: English
Subfield: Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7162128366