The Arabic AI-GPR Index: Measuring Geopolitical Risk from Arabic-Language News
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This record presents the Arabic AI-GPR Index, the first daily measure of geopolitical risk constructed entirely from Arabic-language news. Building on the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) framework of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) and the large-language-model approach of Iacoviello and Tong (2026), the index reads a curated corpus of leading pan-Arab outlets accessed through GDELT, spanning February 2015 to mid-2026. Geopolitical-risk content is measured along two convergent tracks: a transparent theme-based screen and a large-language-model reading of each article. The index co-moves with the original GPR and the AI-GPR in changes while diverging in levels, and its oil component tracks the Middle East oil-risk index at a correlation of 0.82. It is decomposed by country, country pair, actor, event type, sub-national hotspot, threats versus acts, and oil corridor. The full index, all sub-indices, and the interactive interface are available at https://karimiddouch.org/
Author: IDDOUCH, KARIM
Institution: Université Internationale de Casablanca
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7165682136